How to improve your second order thinking
Edition 50th: Get better at second order thinking, the most valuable skill of 20th century
Decision Making
1. Always ask yourself, "And then what?" when deciding. Think through the potential consequences beyond the immediate impact.
2. Use the 10/10/10 rule - consider how you will feel about this decision 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years from now. This forces you to look at short, medium, and long-term effects.[
3. Create a visual template or decision tree to map out the potential 1st, 2nd, and 3rd order consequences of each option you are considering.
4. Consider how your decision will impact or be received by all stakeholders involved - employees, customers, competitors, regulators etc.
5. Seek out diverse perspectives beyond your own point of view to identify potential blind spots in your thinking.
Problem-Solving
1. Frame the problem at a higher level by asking, "What is the real problem I am trying to solve here?" versus just the immediate issue.
2. Use second-order thinking to anticipate potential unintended consequences of your proposed solutions before implementing them.
3. Be willing to consider unconventional solutions by pushing your analysis beyond the obvious first-order effects.
Critical Thinking
1. Separate your feelings from the analysis. Avoid just going with your first intuitive reaction.[
2. Question your assumptions and biases that may be leading you to first-order conclusions.
3. Argue against your own beliefs and solutions to stress test them more rigorously.
4. Learn from mistakes by reflecting on why your first-order thinking failed and how to improve for the future.
The key habits are deliberately taking more time to think through cascading impacts, seeking different viewpoints, and challenging your own assumptions and first intuitions. Building these habits of second-order thinking can lead to better decisions, more robust solutions, and improved critical analysis skills over time.
Top 3 resources to improve your second-order thinking:
Second-Order Thinking: What Smart People Use to Outperform
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